Campaign watchers point to two voter groups ― supporters of the late President Roh Moo-hyun, and those concerned with national security ― as campaign factors in the local elections slated for June 2.
Depending on which voters turn out more on the day, winners of three particular battle grounds ― Seoul, Incheon and Gyeonggi Province ― will be determined.
The sunken naval vessel Chonan, which took the lives of 46 sailors, alarmed the nation as the multi-national investigation team said that an external blast was the most likely cause of the maritime disaster.
The possible role of North Korea in the tragedy has raised concerns with ``security voters.''
Meanwhile, the nation is scheduled to commemorate the first anniversary of Roh's suicide on May 23.
The former president, who was widely supported by liberal voters, committed suicide a year ago while being investigated for taking bribes from a businessman while in office.
Support for the main opposition Democratic Party (DP) soared within a few weeks after his death as more people viewed the investigation into Roh as political retaliation.
Former aides to the late president are looking to promote a Roh effect in the forthcoming elections, hoping that the memorial service will urge liberal voters to mark ballot boxes against the ruling party.
On the pro-Roh side, two major candidates ― former Prime Minister Han Myeong-sook and former Health and Welfare Minister Rhyu Si-min ― have declared their bids in the local elections.
Han is running for the Seoul mayoral election and Rhyu for Gyeonggi governor.
Polls said these two liberal candidates are behind incumbents _ Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon and Gyeonggi Governor Kim Moon-soo _ who both won the 2006 local elections on the ruling Grand National Party (GNP) ticket.
A recent Hankook Ilbo newspaper survey found Oh had support of 49.5 percent against Han's 30.8 percent.
Kim's rate stood at 40 percent, while that of Rhyu was 18 percent.
Despite the double-digit margins, campaign watchers caution that current differences will not be a precursor to sweeping GNP wins in the elections that are to be held in a month.
According to them, respondents, who support the opposition, tend not to answer pollsters about who they will vote for before the election.
The trend was distinctive in last year's by-elections.
Rep. Lee Chan-yeol of the DP, who polls put in second place by 24 percentage points, won the real election.
Another DP lawmaker Hong Young-pyo ― also second by a double-digit margin before the election ― won by a margin of 10 percentage points.
Pollsters say about 10 to 15 percent of opposition party supporters tend not to indicate their preferred candidates in surveys, making it difficult to predict election results based on polls.
Meanwhile, voters who are highly conscious of security, show signs of unifying in the wake of the sinking of the Cheonan.
Pollsters say recent surveys of residents in the Seoul, Incheon and Gyeonggi Province show the unity of conservative voters.
Incumbents, all of them who won the 2004 local elections on the GNP ticket, came first in the surveys, at a distance far ahead of their rivals.
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